Wise Up

If there's one thing I can't stand, it's vague pseudoscience or sophisticated deception. Horoscopes and pyramid schemes fall into this category, but also the following load of 'kinda makes you think, doesn't it' coincidences, which I hope to debunk for you:

• Abraham Lincoln was elected to Congress in 1846; John F. Kennedy was elected to Congress in 1946.
• Abraham Lincoln was elected President in 1860; John F. Kennedy was elected President in 1960.


• The names Lincoln and Kennedy each contain seven letters.


• Both were particularly concerned with civil rights.


• Both wives lost their children while living in the White House.


• Both Presidents were shot on a Friday.


• Both were shot in the head.


• Lincoln's secretary was named Kennedy; Kennedy's secretary was named Lincoln.


• Both were assassinated by Southerners.


• Both were succeeded by Southerners.


• Both successors were named Johnson.


• Andrew Johnson, who succeeded Lincoln, was born in 1808; Lyndon Johnson, who succeeded Kennedy, was born in 1908.


• John Wilkes Booth, who assassinated Lincoln was born in 1839; Lee Harvey Oswald, who assassinated Kennedy was born in 1939.


• Both assassins were known by their three names.


• Both names compromise fifteen letters.


• Booth ran from the theater and was caught in a warehouse; Oswald ran from a warehouse and was caught in a theater.

Wow. That's an unlikely set of amazing coincidences.. or is it?!? I don't know exactly what my conclusion is supposed to be, but here's my take on the list.

Abraham Lincoln was elected to Congress in 1846; John F. Kennedy was elected to Congress in 1946.
There's nothing very special about that.
Abraham Lincoln was elected President in 1860; John F. Kennedy was elected President in 1960.
The fact that the difference between their entering Congress and becoming president is 14 years is not that strange; that might just be the average time it took each President to get to the office.
As for the difference of 100 years: there are 43 presidents of the US. Of these, 18 have a colleague who became president 100 years earlier or later. So the chances of finding a pair such as this is 18/43, that is, more than 41%.
The names Lincoln and Kennedy each contain seven letters.
Out of the over 88,000 most frequent names in the US Census in 1990, some 19,000 had seven letters, about 21,5%. So the chances of two people having a 7-letter surname are about 1 in 10.
Both were particularly concerned with civil rights.
So were numerous other presidents, such as Kennedy's successor, Johnson.
Both wives lost their children while living in the White House.
In Lincoln's day, miscarriages were -unfortunately- not that uncommon. Being a president's wife and experiencing the stress that goes with that experience may increase the change of miscarriage. As for 'while living in the White House': in both cases, the wives were at the age when they would be likely to have children while in the White House, as did probably most other presidents' wives.
Both Presidents were shot on a Friday.
There's a 1 in 7 chance of that happening, more than 14%.
Both were shot in the head.
Assassins tend to shoot at the head or the heart, those being the most likely places to kill effectively. Both were, by the way, also shot in numerous other places, which are conveniently not compared since they were completely different.
Lincoln's secretary was named Kennedy.
Kennedy's secretary was named Lincoln.
Kennedy is the 137th most frequent name in the US in 1990; Lincoln the 2126th. Given the fact that there are probably millions of different surnames in the US, this is not amazingly improbable. Also, did both presidents have only one secretary?
Both were assassinated by Southerners.
This is a chance of 1 in 4.
Both were succeeded by Southerners.
Again a chance of 1 in 4, even more if you consider that US presidents are more often Southerners than Northerners.
Both successors were named Johnson.
Johnson was the second most frequent surname in the US in 1990.
Andrew Johnson, who succeeded Lincoln, was born in 1808; Lyndon Johnson, who succeeded Kennedy, was born in 1908.
Both were vice-presidents, who would be likely to be a roughly equal amount of years older than the president to instill confidence in the voters.
John Wilkes Booth, who assassinated Lincoln was born in 1839; Lee Harvey Oswald, who assassinated Kennedy was born in 1939.
Assassins tend to be relatively younger and also generally fit an age group.
Both assassins were known by their three names.
Both were Southerners, where triple names are quite common (Jerry Lee Lewis springs to mind).
Both names compromise fifteen letters.
Frequency counts will also confirm that this is a highly frequent sum total.
Booth ran from the theater and was caught in a warehouse; Oswald ran from a warehouse and was caught in a theater.
Theaters are crowded on the one hand, so a logical place for an assassination, and dark on the other, so logical to hide in.
Warehouses are deserted, so a good place to commit a murder unseen and a good place
to hide.
Especially in a big city, these two types of places are quite likely candidates for both assassinating and hiding.

Now look at these amazing facts:

1. Lincoln was born in 1809. Kennedy was born in 1917. Not 100 years apart.


2. Lincoln was a Republican, Kennedy was a Democrat.


3. Lincoln was assassinated in Washington, DC in April, 1865. Kennedy in Dallas, November, 1963. Different place, state and month, and the years are not 100 years apart.


4. Lincoln's full name has 14 letters, John Fitzgerald Kennedy's has 21.


5. Lincoln belonged to no church, Kennedy was a Catholic.


6. Lincoln was born in Kentucky, Kennedy in Massachusetts.

I could go on for hours.